Data & Code

The Indian Analyst Scorecard

We scored 19,093 broker price targets against real prices, then traded them.

Every result, every table and every assumption is on this page. Check our work.

19,093matured reports

851stocks

52brokerage firms

4 yearsAug 2021 – Sep 2025

Want the code?

The five scripts that produced all of this — the collector, the scorer, the backtest, the year split and the stop-loss grid — are yours for the asking.

Email hello@themarketsstory.com

Put scripts in the subject line. A human replies.

Not a mailing list, not a funnel. We would rather have the conversation than the download count.

Every broker price target published over four years, scored against what the stock actually did — then traded.

19,093 matured research reports · 851 stocks · 52 brokerage firms · August 2021 – September 2025

Everything behind the episode "Should You Follow the Analyst?" is published here: every aggregate table, the method, and every assumption we made. Nothing on this page is an opinion — check any number in the episode against it.

The headline findings


Targets met at the 12-month mark	38.2%
Targets touched at any point	65.4%
Touched, buy calls only	55.5%
Average promised move	+16.4%
Average actual 12-month move	+7.8%

Then we traded them. Equal money into all 13,909 matured buy calls, held 12 months, net of costs:

Strategy	Annual return
Just buy the NIFTY over the identical windows	+10.5%
Follow every buy call, hold 12 months	+7.8%
Follow every buy call, book profit at the target	−0.4%

Ten exit rules were tested, including stop-losses at 10 / 15 / 20 / 25%, with stops assumed to fill perfectly at the stop price. None of the ten beat the index.

And the whole result is one year: calls made in 2023 returned +30.3%. Calls made in the other four years — 10,147 of them — returned −0.6%.

The full results

The scorecard
Following the broker
By broker and by year
The stop-loss grid
Every table as a CSV

The scorecard

Touched target within 12 months: 65.4% (Buy calls: 55.5%)
At/beyond target when 12 months ended: 38.2% (Buy calls: 33.8%)
Average promised move: 16.4% · average actual 12-month move: 7.8% · average miss: 36.5 pts
Rating mix: Buy 73% · Hold 23% · Sell 5%
Target raised after a >20% run in the prior 60 days: 7.6% of all reports (1448)
Cross-check: Trendlyne's own "target met" flag says 67.6% — our hit_any is 65.4%. They should be close; a big gap means a price-data problem.

By promised upside

bucket	n	hit_any	hit_end	implied	actual	miss	chase_rate	buy_share	sell_share
≤0%	1977	79	40.4	-8.3	5.5	33.4	12.9	2.5	41.9
0–10%	3670	91.1	51.4	6	7.2	33.5	8.7	33.8	1.5
10–20%	7119	66.5	40.4	15.2	6.7	33.2	8.1	88.8	0
20–40%	5324	47.7	28.4	26.8	8.6	39.8	5	99.5	0
40%+	1003	31	21.3	56.7	17.3	59.9	2.7	99.7	0

By rating

side	n	hit_any	hit_end	implied	actual	miss	chase_rate	buy_share	sell_share
buy	13909	55.5	33.8	21.9	8.4	37.6	7.2	100	0
hold	4300	96.9	52.9	4.5	6.1	33.3	8	0	0
sell	884	68.3	35.3	-12.7	6	34.7	11	0	100

By year

date	n	hit_any	hit_end	implied	actual	miss	chase_rate	buy_share	sell_share
2021	1046	50.4	31.2	16.9	-12	39.6	13.8	76.4	3.1
2022	4720	59.3	37.1	19.2	5.4	36.7	5	75.8	2.4
2023	5131	76.9	48.1	15.7	31.4	42.9	8.6	73.3	4.1
2024	4562	64.1	33	14.2	-6.2	32.4	9.8	68.7	6.7
2025	3634	63.1	34	16.4	0.6	31.5	5	72.6	6.1

By broker (≥30 matured reports)

broker	n	hit_any	hit_end	implied	actual	miss	chase_rate	buy_share	sell_share
Bonanza	95	72.6	50.5	20.9	20.8	44	5.3	85.3	0
SBI Securities	70	74.3	48.6	14.2	20.4	43.5	1.4	100	0
Chola Wealth Direct	99	66.7	48.5	21	18.1	35.9	10.1	86.9	4
IDBI Capital	836	72.2	44.1	15.9	5.2	33.6	7.7	59.7	1
LKP Securities	100	55	44	24.7	15	42.4	13	100	0
Geojit BNP Paribas	1734	75.5	43.3	11.1	9.8	33.7	8.8	63.8	7.3
ICICI Securities Limited	3121	66.5	41.9	16.1	14.9	39.4	8.6	73	7.8
ICICI Direct	1541	71.1	40.4	17.3	15.7	37.7	7.7	71	1.3
Axis Direct	2128	67.3	38.5	14.2	4.5	33.1	7.8	77.2	1.5
CD Equisearch	78	73.1	38.5	8.7	4.5	34.8	7.7	56.4	14.1
Prabhudas Lilladhar	1768	64.8	38.2	14.2	5.4	34.7	6.4	76.2	5.4
Motilal Oswal	2905	64.3	37.5	15.2	4.6	35.2	7.8	65.5	1.8
BOB Capital Markets Ltd.	1082	65.7	36.9	12.2	5.1	35.9	6.3	51.3	9.4
Keynote Capitals Ltd	307	64.5	35.5	20.1	-0.4	40.8	8.5	64.5	12.4
AUM Capital	38	55.3	34.2	24.2	22.7	65.2	2.6	97.4	0
Sharekhan	955	58.8	33.2	18.7	6.6	35	9	89.9	0.8
Arihant Capital	43	60.5	32.6	32.5	11.1	38.1	2.3	76.7	2.3
Deven Choksey	68	60.3	32.4	9.7	-0.9	32.4	0	88.2	7.4
Hem Securities	126	61.9	31.7	18	6.7	42.1	0.8	100	0
BP Wealth	57	63.2	29.8	20	-5.1	37.8	0	84.2	3.5
Edelweiss	517	53.8	29.8	25.4	0.1	37.4	9.5	96.7	0
Ventura	210	41.9	27.1	54.4	15.6	60.6	2.9	90	7.6
Emkay	478	57.3	27	17.9	0.2	35.2	5.9	74.3	24.1
Monarch Networth Capital Limited	140	42.9	26.4	29.5	-1.1	43	10	95	1.4
Ashika Research	50	48	24	17	-7.1	39	2	100	0
FundsIndia	70	64.3	22.9	19	0.3	31.3	0	100	0
Anand Rathi	266	44	22.6	27.4	-1.6	40.9	4.5	97.4	0
Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates	39	48.7	20.5	23.9	-1.9	28.7	0	94.9	2.6
Khambatta Securities	55	52.7	20	27.5	-7.6	43.9	16.4	76.4	1.8
Yes Securities	38	26.3	15.8	33.9	3	42.7	0	100	0

Following the broker

Costs: 60 bps round trip. Every position held 12 months (rule A).

Take every buy call from every broker, hold 12 months: +7.8% a year, net of costs.
Sell the moment the target is touched instead: -0.4% a year.
Brokers whose calls beat the same-month average of all calls: 14 of 30.
Brokers where that edge is statistically real (|t| > 2): 12 of 30 — 4 genuinely ahead, 8 genuinely behind.
Buying the index instead, same dates, same 12-month holds: +10.5% a year.

Why selling at the target costs so much

Calls that touched the target (7,720): booking at the target pays +19.4%. Holding the full 12 months instead pays +34.1%.
Calls that never touched it (6,189): -23.8%. You take that loss either way.
So the target rule caps the winners and leaves the losers untouched. That is the whole gap.

The return is not spread evenly

Median call +4.0%, mean call +7.8%.
The best 10% of calls produce 134% of the entire return. The other 90% together lose money.
16.9% of calls lost more than 30%. 8.4% lost more than half.

Per broker (annual return, equal money in every call)

Broker	calls	HOLD 12M	EXIT AT TARGET	same-month avg	edge vs avg	t-stat	% calls up	worst call
Chola Wealth Direct	86	+22.3%	+6.5%	+8.2%	+14.1 pts	+2.7	65%	-81%
AUM Capital	37	+22.0%	-4.3%	+7.9%	+14.1 pts	+1.1	43%	-88%
SBI Securities	70	+19.8%	+0.3%	+12.2%	+7.6 pts	+1.1	60%	-75%
Ventura	189	+18.9%	+12.3%	+6.0%	+12.9 pts	+1.8	52%	-94%
Bonanza	81	+18.1%	+0.1%	+26.5%	-8.5 pts	-1.4	70%	-95%
ICICI Securities Limited	2,278	+17.0%	+2.4%	+14.2%	+2.8 pts	+2.5	62%	-96%
ICICI Direct	1,094	+15.4%	+2.8%	+14.2%	+1.1 pts	+0.8	61%	-92%
Arihant Capital	33	+14.5%	+9.2%	-2.7%	+17.2 pts	+2.1	61%	-78%
LKP Securities	100	+14.4%	-0.8%	+2.8%	+11.6 pts	+2.2	65%	-83%
IDBI Capital	499	+10.9%	+2.3%	+8.1%	+2.8 pts	+1.4	54%	-92%
Geojit BNP Paribas	1,106	+8.3%	-0.6%	+7.5%	+0.8 pts	+0.6	54%	-95%
Hem Securities	126	+6.1%	-1.9%	+5.4%	+0.7 pts	+0.2	45%	-92%
CD Equisearch	44	+6.0%	+1.0%	+7.5%	-1.5 pts	-0.2	55%	-75%
Sharekhan	859	+5.1%	-0.8%	+6.2%	-1.2 pts	-0.9	53%	-95%
Motilal Oswal	1,904	+4.6%	-1.5%	+6.8%	-2.1 pts	-2.3	53%	-93%
Prabhudas Lilladhar	1,347	+4.5%	-2.7%	+7.4%	-2.9 pts	-2.7	54%	-96%
Axis Direct	1,643	+3.8%	-2.4%	+6.6%	-2.8 pts	-2.8	53%	-95%
BOB Capital Markets Ltd.	555	+3.0%	-4.2%	+8.6%	-5.6 pts	-3.0	53%	-96%
Yes Securities	38	+2.4%	-2.5%	+2.6%	-0.1 pts	-0.0	55%	-94%
Keynote Capitals Ltd	198	+1.6%	-0.1%	+11.1%	-9.6 pts	-3.1	46%	-89%
FundsIndia	70	-0.3%	+2.1%	-2.5%	+2.2 pts	+0.6	49%	-71%
Monarch Networth Capital Limited	133	-0.3%	-3.3%	+5.0%	-5.3 pts	-1.4	48%	-96%
Edelweiss	500	-0.4%	-1.8%	+6.3%	-6.7 pts	-3.7	49%	-96%
Emkay	355	-0.9%	-0.8%	-1.4%	+0.5 pts	+0.3	46%	-89%
Anand Rathi	259	-1.6%	-3.3%	-0.3%	-1.4 pts	-0.6	42%	-89%
Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates	37	-1.9%	+2.9%	-2.5%	+0.6 pts	+0.2	43%	-61%
Deven Choksey	60	-2.1%	-5.5%	-0.6%	-1.6 pts	-0.3	40%	-64%
BP Wealth	48	-3.2%	-2.5%	+2.1%	-5.3 pts	-1.0	40%	-86%
Ashika Research	50	-7.7%	-7.6%	+4.6%	-12.3 pts	-2.2	36%	-95%
Khambatta Securities	42	-12.9%	-9.9%	-1.7%	-11.2 pts	-2.1	29%	-85%

By the year the call was made

Year	calls	HOLD 12M	EXIT AT TARGET
2021	799	-11.7%	-13.1%
2022	3,576	+5.5%	-2.5%
2023	3,762	+30.3%	+7.1%
2024	3,134	-6.1%	-3.7%
2025	2,638	+1.0%	-0.5%

By broker and by year

Every position: equal money, bought on the report date, sold 12 months later, 60 bps round trip.

The whole result is one year

All calls, all years: +7.8% a year. The index over the identical holding windows: +10.5%.
Calls made in 2023 alone: +30.3% (3,762 calls, 27% of the book).
Every other year put together: -0.6% (10,147 calls).
20 of the 30 brokers go negative once 2023 entries are removed.

Street average, by entry year

Entry year	calls	following the calls	the index, same windows
2021	799	-11.7%	+0.6%
2022	3,576	+5.5%	+9.6%
2023	3,762	+30.3%	+24.1%
2024	3,134	-6.1%	+5.3%
2025	2,638	+1.0%	+1.5%

Every broker, by entry year

Blank = that firm published no matured buy calls that year — which is itself the point: a firm whose coverage stops before a bad year will look better than one that stayed.

Broker	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	ALL	EX-2023	calls
Chola Wealth Direct	+7%	+16%	+59%	—	—	+22.3%	+14.5%	86
AUM Capital	-34%	+15%	+110%	-25%	-8%	+22.0%	-6.1%	37
SBI Securities	-51%	+1%	+56%	-5%	—	+19.8%	-2.9%	70
Ventura	+26%	+8%	+51%	-6%	+21%	+18.9%	+10.2%	189
Bonanza	—	-7%	+28%	—	—	+18.1%	-6.5%	81
ICICI Securities Limited	-12%	+9%	+36%	-6%	+5%	+17.0%	+2.9%	2,278
ICICI Direct	—	+9%	+37%	-3%	-0%	+15.4%	+4.2%	1,094
Arihant Capital	-23%	+23%	—	—	—	+14.5%	+14.5%	33
LKP Securities	+6%	+9%	+56%	—	—	+14.4%	+7.7%	100
IDBI Capital	-6%	+24%	+30%	-6%	+1%	+10.9%	+3.5%	499
Geojit BNP Paribas	-12%	+12%	+31%	-4%	-1%	+8.3%	+1.5%	1,106
Hem Securities	-19%	+5%	+47%	-5%	-12%	+6.1%	-3.1%	126
CD Equisearch	-18%	+19%	+1%	-17%	+55%	+6.0%	+7.7%	44
Sharekhan	—	+4%	+29%	-3%	-5%	+5.1%	-3.4%	859
Motilal Oswal	-13%	+1%	+28%	-7%	-0%	+4.6%	-2.8%	1,904
Prabhudas Lilladhar	-18%	+1%	+27%	-10%	+3%	+4.5%	-2.1%	1,347
Axis Direct	-8%	+2%	+21%	-7%	+1%	+3.8%	-2.2%	1,643
BOB Capital Markets Ltd.	-38%	-7%	+21%	-3%	+0%	+3.0%	-5.2%	555
Yes Securities	—	+2%	—	—	—	+2.4%	+2.4%	38
Keynote Capitals Ltd	—	+5%	+4%	+0%	-3%	+1.6%	-0.1%	198
FundsIndia	—	—	—	-5%	+5%	-0.3%	-0.3%	70
Monarch Networth Capital Limited	-3%	+4%	+11%	-22%	—	-0.3%	-3.8%	133
Edelweiss	-15%	-1%	+14%	-7%	-3%	-0.4%	-4.9%	500
Emkay	—	+21%	+144%	-15%	+7%	-0.9%	-1.3%	355
Anand Rathi	—	+5%	+54%	-6%	-4%	-1.6%	-3.0%	259
Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates	—	—	—	-2%	-2%	-1.9%	-1.9%	37
Deven Choksey	—	—	—	—	-2%	-2.1%	-2.1%	60
BP Wealth	-9%	-9%	+15%	-6%	-5%	-3.2%	-6.8%	48
Ashika Research	-20%	-17%	+49%	+4%	—	-7.7%	-15.4%	50
Khambatta Securities	—	-25%	-34%	+6%	-10%	-12.9%	-12.4%	42

How to read this

The ALL column is not comparable across firms. Each covers a different set of years, and the years are not alike.
EX-2023 is the fairer number, and it is the one that should be quoted.
A firm with no 2024 or 2025 column simply stopped being logged before the flat years. Treat its ALL figure as unearned.
Call counts are in by_broker_year_n.csv. Any cell under ~30 calls is noise, not skill.

The stop-loss grid

13,909 matured BUY calls, 60 bps round trip. Stops assumed to fill AT the stop price (no gap risk) — so these are best-case.

Stop	Exit rule	Annual return	Median call	% calls up	5th pctile	Worst
25%	hold 12m	+9.2%	-0.1%	50%	-26%	-26%
20%	hold 12m	+9.0%	-5.5%	46%	-21%	-21%
15%	hold 12m	+8.2%	-15.6%	39%	-16%	-16%
none	hold 12m	+7.8%	+4.0%	54%	-69%	-96%
10%	hold 12m	+6.8%	-10.6%	29%	-11%	-11%
20%	book at target	+1.7%	+7.6%	56%	-21%	-100%
25%	book at target	+1.6%	+9.2%	59%	-26%	-100%
15%	book at target	+1.4%	-2.3%	49%	-16%	-100%
10%	book at target	+1.0%	-10.6%	39%	-11%	-100%
none	book at target	-0.4%	+10.3%	64%	-69%	-100%

The index over the same holding windows: +10.5%. Rules that beat it: 0 of 10.

Best rule (25% stop, hold 12m) by year

Year	calls	return
2021	799	-7.7%
2022	3,576	+8.1%
2023	3,762	+31.1%
2024	3,134	-5.1%
2025	2,638	+1.5%

Best rule by broker (min 30 calls)

EX-2023 is the same rule with every call made in 2023 removed — the check that matters, because 2023 is 27% of the book and carries the whole result.

Broker	calls	return	EX-2023
AUM Capital	37	+27.8%	+1.7%
Ventura	189	+22.3%	+14.2%
Bonanza	81	+20.8%	+4.5%
SBI Securities	70	+20.8%	+0.4%
Chola Wealth Direct	86	+20.2%	+11.8%
LKP Securities	100	+19.6%	+12.9%
ICICI Securities Limited	2,278	+17.4%	+4.0%
Arihant Capital	33	+16.6%	+16.6%
ICICI Direct	1,094	+15.0%	+4.6%
IDBI Capital	499	+11.4%	+3.4%
Geojit BNP Paribas	1,106	+9.0%	+2.5%
Yes Securities	38	+8.0%	+8.0%
CD Equisearch	44	+7.6%	+7.8%
BOB Capital Markets Ltd.	555	+7.0%	-1.1%
Sharekhan	859	+6.8%	-1.7%
Prabhudas Lilladhar	1,347	+6.7%	+0.3%
Motilal Oswal	1,904	+6.3%	-0.8%
Axis Direct	1,643	+6.3%	-0.6%
Hem Securities	126	+6.2%	-3.0%
Keynote Capitals Ltd	198	+2.1%	-2.9%
Edelweiss	500	+1.2%	-1.9%
Emkay	355	+0.8%	+0.4%
Anand Rathi	259	+0.4%	-0.9%
Monarch Networth Capital Limited	133	-1.0%	-3.6%
BP Wealth	48	-1.4%	-4.9%
Deven Choksey	60	-1.8%	-1.8%
FundsIndia	70	-2.7%	-2.7%
Ashika Research	50	-3.0%	-10.1%
Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates	37	-3.6%	-3.6%
Khambatta Securities	42	-8.0%	-7.5%

Brokers beating the index (+10.5%) under the best rule: 10 of 30. With 2023 removed: 4 of 30.

Best rule, whole street, with 2023 removed

All years: +9.2%
Excluding calls made in 2023: +1.1% (10,147 calls)

Every table as a CSV

The aggregates behind every number above. Open them, check them, re-run them.

by_broker.csv Every broker, every hit rate 4.9 KB by_rating.csv Buy, hold and sell compared <1 KB by_year.csv Hit rates by year of publication <1 KB by_implied_bucket.csv Hit rate against how much was promised <1 KB by_broker_year.csv Broker × year returns 1.6 KB by_broker_year_counts.csv Broker × year sample sizes <1 KB follow_broker.csv The backtest, broker by broker 7.7 KB stoploss_grid.csv All ten exit rules tested 1.1 KB

What is not published, and why

The report-by-report source dataset is not here. It was collected from a paid subscription service for personal analysis, and republishing it would be redistributing somebody else's product. What is published is every aggregate derived from it — enough to check any number quoted in the episode — and the collector script lets anyone rebuild the raw file from their own subscription.

Licence and disclaimer

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DISCLAIMER
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Educational content only. Nothing here is investment advice, and nothing here is
an accusation against any firm. Being wrong about a 12-month price target is the
normal condition of sell-side research — that is the central finding, not an
aside. Figures reflect a specific window (Aug 2021 - Sep 2025) that contains one
exceptional momentum year. Past results do not predict future results.

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